2024 RI General Assembly Election Strength Rankings
See which members have been the most competitive in recent electionsWhy We Rank Election Strength
In the marketplace, the presence of competition usually results in better products. A company that holds a monopoly position has little incentive to innovate. In elections, the same rules apply. Elected officials who consistently run uncontested have little reason to listen and respond to their constituents, because they will hold onto the job regardless of their performance. Incumbents who often face contested races are incentivized to more closely represent the people they serve and be more responsive, knowing they will be competing for the job every 2 years.
Election Strength Rankings are intended to highlight incumbents who have shown the strength to win their district, sometimes overwhelmingly, while raising awareness about the vast number of uncontested races. This information can be helpful to would-be candidates when determining how 'beatable' an incumbent may be.
Several factors play a part in election results, many of which an incumbent cannot control. For example, an incumbent cannot be faulted for winning an uncontested election. On the other side of the coin, a Senator's dominant victory may have come primarily as a result of a weak or underfunded opponent. Elections are ultimately a popularity contest and not a scientific measurement of a job well done. As a result, this rankings segment should not be considered a measurement of an incumbent's job performance and does not factor into a member's Overall Rankings.
Summary of Findings
Uncontested elections continue to plague Rhode Island state elections. The majority of those who run statewide are unopposed, and often those that are opposed face unserious competition. In fact, the number of General Assembly elections we counted in which the incumbent was unopposed was downright startling. However, when incumbents are challenged, especially in primaries, their chances of retaining seats are far from a sure thing. For current members of the House and Senate, here is a summary of what we found over the last 6 years (3 election cycles) we measured:
Editor's Note
This release is being published much later than we would have preferred. In preparation for the 2024 edition of RI Rank, we migrated to a new automated system which required a significant time investment. Going forward, Election Strength rankings will be released in the month of January immediately following the election. Look for the next edition of the Election Strength Rankings in January 2025, which will contain the latest data from all 2024 races.
Uncontested Winners in the General Assembly
Races in which the winner of the seat was unopposed2022 - By Election
Primary:
General Election:
Both:
2022 - By Chamber
Senate:
House:
2022 Challengers vs. Incumbents
Challenger Win PercentageOverall
Total:
Primary:
General Election:
Senate
Total:
Primary:
General Election:
House
Total:
Primary:
General Election:
How We Scored Election Strength
We examine each member's last three election cycles (primaries and general) where possible, and focused on two metrics: the margin of victory and the number of elections that went uncontested. Special elections are not counted unless it was the member's most recent race. The most recent election cycle is by far the most important one, and is given much higher weight. We also give more weight to primary elections because they have been historically more competitive than general elections.
In counting the margin of victory, we take the winner's percentage of votes and subtract the total percentage of all other votes in the race (including write-ins). In some 3+-way races, the winner receives a minority of the total vote and in these instances the margin of victory is scored as "0". We do not score these in the negative because it would imply that unopposed incumbents are more competitive, which is impossible to know.
Lastly, two deductions are applied: One accounting for uncontested races with a penalty based on the percentage of elections in which the member had no declared competition. For example, if a member had a contested election in 3 of the 6 races measured, they keep 50% of their combined margin of victory total. The second deduction is applied to Senators who did not run in 2022 or 2020. This ratio affects scores less, but helps account for the smaller track record these members have overall.
Senate Rankings
# | Senator | Dist | Score | CR% | '22 G | '22 P | '20 G | '20 P | '18 G | '18 P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mack, T | 6 | 922 | 100 | 68 | 12 | 79 | 20 | ||
2 | Lauria, P | 32 | 581 | 100 | 24 | 50 | ||||
3 | Bissaillon, J | 1 | 494 | 100 | 66 | 6 | ||||
4 | LaMountain | 31 | 423 | 100 | 23 | 32 | ||||
5 | Lawson, V | 14 | 378 | 67 | 20 | 24 | 45 | X | X | 16 |
6 | DeLuca, A | 29 | 328 | 100 | 5 | 35 | ||||
7 | Britto, R | 18 | 299 | 100 | 32 | 10 | ||||
8 | Tikoian, D | 22 | 289 | 100 | 8 | 28 | ||||
9 | Lombardi, F | 26 | 287 | 50 | 16 | 38 | 22 | X | X | X |
10 | Kallman, M | 15 | 274 | 50 | 62 | X | X | 22 | ||
11 | Gu, V | 38 | 269 | 100 | 0 | 32 | ||||
12 | de la Cruz, J | 23 | 259 | 67 | 34 | X | 34 | X | 11 | 2 |
13 | DiMario, A | 36 | 242 | 80 | 14 | X | 0 | 50 | 0 | |
14 | Cano, S | 8 | 233 | 50 | 36 | X | 44 | X | 46 | X |
15 | Zurier, S | 3 | 197 | 50 | X | 47 | ||||
16 | Valverde, B | 35 | 195 | 67 | 14 | X | 12 | X | 8 | 68 |
17 | Bell, S | 5 | 190 | 50 | X | 20 | X | 45 | X | 0 |
18 | Ujifusa, L | 11 | 185 | 100 | 10 | 14 | ||||
19 | Acosta, J | 16 | 165 | 50 | 44 | X | X | 0 | ||
19 | Sosnowski, S | 37 | 165 | 50 | 16 | X | 39 | 21 | X | X |
20 | Ciccone, F | 7 | 147 | 33 | X | 36 | X | X | X | 40 |
21 | McKenney, M | 30 | 144 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 0 | X | 9 | |
22 | Euer, D | 13 | 127 | 33 | 42 | X | X | X | 44 | X |
23 | Burke, J | 9 | 111 | 75 | 12 | X | 18 | 2 | ||
24 | DiPalma, L | 12 | 101 | 33 | 34 | X | X | X | 32 | X |
25 | Murray, M | 24 | 95 | 50 | 12 | X | X | X | 18 | 38 |
26 | Felag, W | 10 | 81 | 33 | 20 | X | 28 | X | X | X |
27 | Ruggerio, D | 4 | 80 | 33 | X | 20 | X | 10 | X | X |
28 | Rogers, G | 21 | 77 | 33 | 29 | X | X | X | 0 | X |
29 | Picard, R | 20 | 64 | 33 | 21 | X | X | X | 24 | X |
30 | Pearson, R | 19 | 57 | 33 | 19 | X | X | X | 18 | X |
31 | Morgan, E | 34 | 56 | 50 | 10 | X | 8 | X | 8 | X |
32 | Paolino, T | 17 | 28 | 50 | 0 | X | 18 | X | 2 | X |
33 | Miller, J | 28 | 20 | 17 | X | X | 41 | X | X | X |
34 | Gallo, H | 27 | 17 | 33 | X | X | 10 | X | 22 | X |
35 | Raptakis, L | 33 | 2 | 17 | X | X | X | X | 10 | X |
36 | Quezada, A | 2 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Level of Competitiveness
High
Good
Low
Key
Uncontested
Did Not Run
How We Rank
Score is the cumulative total of the member's election victory margins ('22 Prim/'22 Gen/'20 Prim/'20 Gen/'18 Prim/'18 Gen) multiplied by a recency factor minus deductions for uncontested races and races in which they did not participate. Recency factor gives higher weight to more recent elections and to primaries, and is applied as follows: 2022 Primary: 10, General: 8 - 2020 Primary: 4, General: 3 - 2018 Primary: 2, General: 1. If a member had contested elections in every race they participated in and ran in all 3 of the last election cycles, this would be their final score.
A deduction was applied based on the member's Contested Races Percentage (CR%), which is the percent of races the member has run in where they had at least one declared opponent. To calculate the deduction, the total cumulative victory margin was multiplied by the CR%. For example, if the total cumulative victory margin was 200 and member had contested races 50% of the time, their adjusted score would be 100.
A smaller deduction was applied based on the number of races, out of the 6 measured, that the member has run in. Deductions were applied as follows for races in which the member was not a candidate: 2022 Primary: 5%, General: 5%, 2020 Primary: 3%, General: 3%.
It is important to reiterate that Election Strength is not a good measure of a member's job performance and these scores do not count towards the member's overall rankings. Members with scores 300+ are considered "Highly Competitive", scores between 50 - 299 are "Competitive", and scores below 50 are considered "Not Competitive". The maximum possible score is 2660 (albeit a theoretical impossibility). The lowest possible score is 0.
House Rankings
# | Rep | Dist | Score | CR% | '22 G | '22 P | '20 G | '20 P | '18 G | '18 P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Diaz, G | 11 | 1119 | 83 | 71 | 30 | 73 | 45 | X | 38 |
2 | Kislak, R | 4 | 669 | 67 | 79 | X | 75 | X | 75 | 36 |
3 | Potter, B | 16 | 538 | 100 | 16 | 34 | 8 | 20 | ||
4 | Dawson, M | 65 | 457 | 100 | 33 | 28 | ||||
5 | DeSimone, A | 5 | 438 | 100 | 59 | 5 | ||||
6 | Fenton-Fung, B | 15 | 425 | 50 | X | 85 | 18 | X | ||
7 | McNamara, J | 19 | 381 | 67 | X | 36 | 26 | 24 | 38 | X |
8 | McGaw, M | 71 | 341 | 75 | 26 | X | 12 | 60 | ||
9 | Henries, B | 64 | 331 | 75 | 33 | 11 | X | 24 | ||
10 | Morales, D | 7 | 252 | 50 | 63 | X | X | 0 | ||
11 | Felix, L | 61 | 240 | 75 | 23 | X | 28 | 18 | ||
12 | Fogarty, K | 35 | 236 | 50 | 28 | X | X | 52 | 40 | X |
13 | Donovan, S | 69 | 231 | 67 | 21 | X | 16 | X | 10 | 60 |
14 | Voas, B | 57 | 220 | 100 | 29 | 3 | ||||
15 | Craven, R | 32 | 212 | 50 | 27 | 18 | X | X | 28 | X |
16 | Solomon, Jr., J | 22 | 211 | 50 | 12 | 31 | 5 | X | X | X |
17 | Quattrocchi, R | 41 | 207 | 50 | 37 | X | 30 | X | 28 | X |
18 | Kennedy, B | 38 | 205 | 67 | 15 | X | 16 | 30 | 20 | X |
19 | Chippendale, M | 40 | 199 | 50 | 35 | X | 32 | X | 22 | X |
20 | Tanzi, T | 34 | 189 | 50 | 25 | X | X | 42 | 10 | X |
21 | Shekarchi, J | 23 | 183 | 33 | 20 | 39 | X | X | X | X |
22 | Perez, R | 13 | 176 | 50 | 27 | X | X | 34 | X | 0 |
23 | Speakman, J | 68 | 166 | 67 | 13 | X | 19 | X | 0 | 44 |
24 | Nardone, G | 28 | 165 | 67 | 17 | X | 16 | X | 0 | 32 |
25 | McEntee, C | 33 | 160 | 50 | 22 | X | X | X | 24 | 60 |
26 | Kazarian, K | 63 | 155 | 33 | 41 | X | X | X | X | 68 |
27 | Cortvriend, T | 72 | 153 | 50 | X | X | 16 | 62 | 10 | X |
28 | Serpa, P | 27 | 152 | 50 | 17 | X | X | 36 | 24 | X |
28 | Messier, M | 62 | 152 | 33 | 22 | 28 | X | X | X | X |
29 | Casimiro, J | 31 | 142 | 33 | 17 | 29 | X | X | X | X |
30 | Hull, R | 6 | 128 | 33 | X | 22 | 55 | X | X | X |
31 | Phillips, R | 51 | 105 | 33 | X | 27 | X | X | 44 | X |
32 | Ajello, E | 1 | 100 | 17 | 75 | X | X | X | X | X |
33 | Place, D | 47 | 93 | 33 | 33 | X | X | X | 14 | X |
34 | Morgan, P | 26 | 91 | 50 | 18 | X | 9 | X | 11 | X |
35 | Shanley, E | 24 | 87 | 33 | 29 | X | X | X | 28 | X |
36 | Shalcross Smith, M | 46 | 83 | 50 | 22 | X | 0 | X | ||
37 | Blazejewski, C | 2 | 80 | 17 | X | 48 | X | X | X | X |
38 | Spears, T | 36 | 77 | 50 | 23 | X | ||||
39 | Knight, J | 67 | 72 | 33 | 21 | X | X | X | 49 | X |
40 | Bennett, D | 20 | 71 | 33 | 25 | X | X | X | 12 | X |
41 | Vella-Wilkinson, C | 21 | 68 | 67 | 0 | 3 | 19 | X | 15 | X |
42 | Corvese, A | 55 | 62 | 17 | X | 37 | X | X | X | X |
43 | Marszalkowski, A | 52 | 60 | 50 | 12 | X | 2 | X | 18 | X |
44 | Lombardi, J | 8 | 53 | 17 | X | X | X | 80 | X | X |
45 | Boylan, J | 66 | 50 | 50 | 15 | X | ||||
46 | Edwards, J | 70 | 48 | 33 | 9 | X | 24 | X | X | X |
47 | Caldwell, J | 30 | 43 | 50 | 9 | X | 4 | X | 2 | X |
48 | Newberry, B | 48 | 37 | 17 | 28 | X | X | X | X | X |
49 | Sanchez, E | 9 | 34 | 50 | X | 8 | ||||
50 | Lima, C | 14 | 33 | 17 | X | 20 | X | X | X | X |
51 | Biah, N | 3 | 28 | 25 | X | X | X | 30 | ||
51 | Fellela, D | 43 | 28 | 33 | 4 | X | 17 | X | X | X |
52 | Cardillo, E | 42 | 27 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | X | ||
53 | Batista, J | 12 | 21 | 25 | X | X | X | 22 | ||
53 | Stewart, J | 59 | 21 | 50 | X | 5 | ||||
54 | Azzinaro, S | 37 | 20 | 17 | X | X | 39 | X | X | X |
55 | Carson, L | 75 | 19 | 17 | X | X | 38 | X | X | X |
56 | Ackerman, M | 45 | 15 | 17 | 11 | X | X | X | X | X |
57 | Costantino, G | 44 | 11 | 17 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
58 | Abney, M | 73 | 8 | 17 | X | X | X | X | 50 | X |
59 | Brien, J | 49 | 7 | 100 | 1 | |||||
60 | Noret, T | 25 | 4 | 17 | X | X | X | X | 24 | X |
60 | Roberts, S | 29 | 4 | 17 | X | X | X | X | 22 | X |
60 | Rea, B | 53 | 4 | 50 | 1 | X | 0 | X | ||
61 | Slater, S | 10 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X |
61 | Baginski, J | 17 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | ||
61 | Handy, A | 18 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X |
61 | Cotter, M | 39 | 0 | 50 | 0 | X | 0 | X | ||
61 | Casey, S | 50 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X |
61 | O'Brien, W | 54 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X |
61 | Giraldo, J | 56 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | ||
61 | Cruz, C | 58 | 0 | 50 | X | 0 | ||||
61 | Alzate, K | 60 | 0 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X |
61 | Finkelman, A | 74 | 0 | 0 | X | X |
Level of Competitiveness
High
Good
Low
Key
Uncontested
Did Not Run
How We Rank
Score is the cumulative total of the member's election victory margins ('22 Prim/'22 Gen/'20 Prim/'20 Gen/'18 Prim/'18 Gen) multiplied by a recency factor minus deductions for uncontested races and races in which they did not participate. Recency factor gives higher weight to more recent elections and to primaries, and is applied as follows: 2022 Primary: 10, General: 8 - 2020 Primary: 4, General: 3 - 2018 Primary: 2, General: 1. If a member had contested elections in every race they participated in and ran in all 3 of the last election cycles, this would be their final score.
A deduction was applied based on the member's Contested Races Percentage (CR%), which is the percent of races the member has run in where they had at least one declared opponent. To calculate the deduction, the total cumulative victory margin was multiplied by the CR%. For example, if the total cumulative victory margin was 200 and member had contested races 50% of the time, their adjusted score would be 100.
A smaller deduction was applied based on the number of races, out of the 6 measured, that the member has run in. Deductions were applied as follows for races in which the member was not a candidate: 2022 Primary: 5%, General: 5%, 2020 Primary: 3%, General: 3%.
It is important to reiterate that Election Strength is not a good measure of a member's job performance and these scores do not count towards the member's overall rankings. Members with scores 300+ are considered "Highly Competitive", scores between 50 - 299 are "Competitive", and scores below 50 are considered "Not Competitive". The maximum possible score is 2660 (albeit a theoretical impossibility). The lowest possible score is 0.