2024 RI General Assembly Election Strength Rankings

See which members have been the most competitive in recent elections

Why We Rank Election Strength

In the marketplace, the presence of competition usually results in better products. A company that holds a monopoly position has little incentive to innovate. In elections, the same rules apply. Elected officials who consistently run uncontested have little reason to listen and respond to their constituents, because they will hold onto the job regardless of their performance. Incumbents who often face contested races are incentivized to more closely represent the people they serve and be more responsive, knowing they will be competing for the job every 2 years.

Election Strength Rankings are intended to highlight incumbents who have shown the strength to win their district, sometimes overwhelmingly, while raising awareness about the vast number of uncontested races. This information can be helpful to would-be candidates when determining how 'beatable' an incumbent may be.

Several factors play a part in election results, many of which an incumbent cannot control. For example, an incumbent cannot be faulted for winning an uncontested election. On the other side of the coin, a Senator's dominant victory may have come primarily as a result of a weak or underfunded opponent. Elections are ultimately a popularity contest and not a scientific measurement of a job well done. As a result, this rankings segment should not be considered a measurement of an incumbent's job performance and does not factor into a member's Overall Rankings.

Summary of Findings

Uncontested elections continue to plague Rhode Island state elections. The majority of those who run statewide are unopposed, and often those that are opposed face unserious competition. In fact, the number of General Assembly elections we counted in which the incumbent was unopposed was downright startling. However, when incumbents are challenged, especially in primaries, their chances of retaining seats are far from a sure thing. For current members of the House and Senate, here is a summary of what we found over the last 6 years (3 election cycles) we measured:

Editor's Note

This release is being published much later than we would have preferred. In preparation for the 2024 edition of RI Rank, we migrated to a new automated system which required a significant time investment. Going forward, Election Strength rankings will be released in the month of January immediately following the election. Look for the next edition of the Election Strength Rankings in January 2025, which will contain the latest data from all 2024 races.

Uncontested Winners in the General Assembly

Races in which the winner of the seat was unopposed

2022 - By Election

Primary:

20%

General Election:

31%

Both:

48%

2022 - By Chamber

Senate:

38%

House:

52%

2022 Challengers vs. Incumbents

Challenger Win Percentage

Overall

Total:

Primary:

13%

General Election:

Senate

Total:

Primary:

10%

General Election:

House

Total:

Primary:

14%

General Election:

How We Scored Election Strength

We examine each member's last three election cycles (primaries and general) where possible, and focused on two metrics: the margin of victory and the number of elections that went uncontested. Special elections are not counted unless it was the member's most recent race. The most recent election cycle is by far the most important one, and is given much higher weight. We also give more weight to primary elections because they have been historically more competitive than general elections.

In counting the margin of victory, we take the winner's percentage of votes and subtract the total percentage of all other votes in the race (including write-ins). In some 3+-way races, the winner receives a minority of the total vote and in these instances the margin of victory is scored as "0". We do not score these in the negative because it would imply that unopposed incumbents are more competitive, which is impossible to know.

Lastly, two deductions are applied: One accounting for uncontested races with a penalty based on the percentage of elections in which the member had no declared competition. For example, if a member had a contested election in 3 of the 6 races measured, they keep 50% of their combined margin of victory total. The second deduction is applied to Senators who did not run in 2022 or 2020. This ratio affects scores less, but helps account for the smaller track record these members have overall.

Senate Rankings

Swipe left for older elections

#	Senator	Dist	Score	CR%	'22 G	'22 P	'20 G	'20 P	'18 G	'18 P
1	Mack, T	6	922	100	68	12	79	20
2	Lauria, P	32	581	100	24	50
3	Bissaillon, J	1	494	100	66	6
4	LaMountain	31	423	100	23	32
5	Lawson, V	14	378	67	20	24	45	X	X	16
6	DeLuca, A	29	328	100	5	35
7	Britto, R	18	299	100	32	10
8	Tikoian, D	22	289	100	8	28
9	Lombardi, F	26	287	50	16	38	22	X	X	X
10	Kallman, M	15	274	50	62	X	X	22
11	Gu, V	38	269	100	0	32
12	de la Cruz, J	23	259	67	34	X	34	X	11	2
13	DiMario, A	36	242	80	14	X	0	50		0
14	Cano, S	8	233	50	36	X	44	X	46	X
15	Zurier, S	3	197	50	X	47
16	Valverde, B	35	195	67	14	X	12	X	8	68
17	Bell, S	5	190	50	X	20	X	45	X	0
18	Ujifusa, L	11	185	100	10	14
19	Acosta, J	16	165	50	44	X	X	0
19	Sosnowski, S	37	165	50	16	X	39	21	X	X
20	Ciccone, F	7	147	33	X	36	X	X	X	40
21	McKenney, M	30	144	80	14	6		0	X	9
22	Euer, D	13	127	33	42	X	X	X	44	X
23	Burke, J	9	111	75	12	X	18	2
24	DiPalma, L	12	101	33	34	X	X	X	32	X
25	Murray, M	24	95	50	12	X	X	X	18	38
26	Felag, W	10	81	33	20	X	28	X	X	X
27	Ruggerio, D	4	80	33	X	20	X	10	X	X
28	Rogers, G	21	77	33	29	X	X	X	0	X
29	Picard, R	20	64	33	21	X	X	X	24	X
30	Pearson, R	19	57	33	19	X	X	X	18	X
31	Morgan, E	34	56	50	10	X	8	X	8	X
32	Paolino, T	17	28	50	0	X	18	X	2	X
33	Miller, J	28	20	17	X	X	41	X	X	X
34	Gallo, H	27	17	33	X	X	10	X	22	X
35	Raptakis, L	33	2	17	X	X	X	X	10	X
36	Quezada, A	2	0	0	X	X	X	X	X	X

Level of Competitiveness

High

Good

Low

Key

Uncontested

Did Not Run

How We Rank

Score is the cumulative total of the member's election victory margins ('22 Prim/'22 Gen/'20 Prim/'20 Gen/'18 Prim/'18 Gen) multiplied by a recency factor minus deductions for uncontested races and races in which they did not participate. Recency factor gives higher weight to more recent elections and to primaries, and is applied as follows: 2022 Primary: 10, General: 8 - 2020 Primary: 4, General: 3 - 2018 Primary: 2, General: 1. If a member had contested elections in every race they participated in and ran in all 3 of the last election cycles, this would be their final score.

A deduction was applied based on the member's Contested Races Percentage (CR%), which is the percent of races the member has run in where they had at least one declared opponent. To calculate the deduction, the total cumulative victory margin was multiplied by the CR%. For example, if the total cumulative victory margin was 200 and member had contested races 50% of the time, their adjusted score would be 100.

A smaller deduction was applied based on the number of races, out of the 6 measured, that the member has run in. Deductions were applied as follows for races in which the member was not a candidate: 2022 Primary: 5%, General: 5%, 2020 Primary: 3%, General: 3%.

It is important to reiterate that Election Strength is not a good measure of a member's job performance and these scores do not count towards the member's overall rankings. Members with scores 300+ are considered "Highly Competitive", scores between 50 - 299 are "Competitive", and scores below 50 are considered "Not Competitive". The maximum possible score is 2660 (albeit a theoretical impossibility). The lowest possible score is 0.

House Rankings

Swipe left for older elections

#	Rep	Dist	Score	CR%	'22 G	'22 P	'20 G	'20 P	'18 G	'18 P
1	Diaz, G	11	1119	83	71	30	73	45	X	38
2	Kislak, R	4	669	67	79	X	75	X	75	36
3	Potter, B	16	538	100	16	34	8	20
4	Dawson, M	65	457	100	33	28
5	DeSimone, A	5	438	100	59	5
6	Fenton-Fung, B	15	425	50	X	85	18	X
7	McNamara, J	19	381	67	X	36	26	24	38	X
8	McGaw, M	71	341	75	26	X	12	60
9	Henries, B	64	331	75	33	11	X	24
10	Morales, D	7	252	50	63	X	X	0
11	Felix, L	61	240	75	23	X	28	18
12	Fogarty, K	35	236	50	28	X	X	52	40	X
13	Donovan, S	69	231	67	21	X	16	X	10	60
14	Voas, B	57	220	100	29	3
15	Craven, R	32	212	50	27	18	X	X	28	X
16	Solomon, Jr., J	22	211	50	12	31	5	X	X	X
17	Quattrocchi, R	41	207	50	37	X	30	X	28	X
18	Kennedy, B	38	205	67	15	X	16	30	20	X
19	Chippendale, M	40	199	50	35	X	32	X	22	X
20	Tanzi, T	34	189	50	25	X	X	42	10	X
21	Shekarchi, J	23	183	33	20	39	X	X	X	X
22	Perez, R	13	176	50	27	X	X	34	X	0
23	Speakman, J	68	166	67	13	X	19	X	0	44
24	Nardone, G	28	165	67	17	X	16	X	0	32
25	McEntee, C	33	160	50	22	X	X	X	24	60
26	Kazarian, K	63	155	33	41	X	X	X	X	68
27	Cortvriend, T	72	153	50	X	X	16	62	10	X
28	Serpa, P	27	152	50	17	X	X	36	24	X
28	Messier, M	62	152	33	22	28	X	X	X	X
29	Casimiro, J	31	142	33	17	29	X	X	X	X
30	Hull, R	6	128	33	X	22	55	X	X	X
31	Phillips, R	51	105	33	X	27	X	X	44	X
32	Ajello, E	1	100	17	75	X	X	X	X	X
33	Place, D	47	93	33	33	X	X	X	14	X
34	Morgan, P	26	91	50	18	X	9	X	11	X
35	Shanley, E	24	87	33	29	X	X	X	28	X
36	Shalcross Smith, M	46	83	50	22	X	0	X
37	Blazejewski, C	2	80	17	X	48	X	X	X	X
38	Spears, T	36	77	50	23	X
39	Knight, J	67	72	33	21	X	X	X	49	X
40	Bennett, D	20	71	33	25	X	X	X	12	X
41	Vella-Wilkinson, C	21	68	67	0	3	19	X	15	X
42	Corvese, A	55	62	17	X	37	X	X	X	X
43	Marszalkowski, A	52	60	50	12	X	2	X	18	X
44	Lombardi, J	8	53	17	X	X	X	80	X	X
45	Boylan, J	66	50	50	15	X
46	Edwards, J	70	48	33	9	X	24	X	X	X
47	Caldwell, J	30	43	50	9	X	4	X	2	X
48	Newberry, B	48	37	17	28	X	X	X	X	X
49	Sanchez, E	9	34	50	X	8
50	Lima, C	14	33	17	X	20	X	X	X	X
51	Biah, N	3	28	25	X	X	X	30
51	Fellela, D	43	28	33	4	X	17	X	X	X
52	Cardillo, E	42	27	75	4	0	2	X
53	Batista, J	12	21	25	X	X	X	22
53	Stewart, J	59	21	50	X	5
54	Azzinaro, S	37	20	17	X	X	39	X	X	X
55	Carson, L	75	19	17	X	X	38	X	X	X
56	Ackerman, M	45	15	17	11	X	X	X	X	X
57	Costantino, G	44	11	17	8	X	X	X	X	X
58	Abney, M	73	8	17	X	X	X	X	50	X
59	Brien, J	49	7	100	1
60	Noret, T	25	4	17	X	X	X	X	24	X
60	Roberts, S	29	4	17	X	X	X	X	22	X
60	Rea, B	53	4	50	1	X	0	X
61	Slater, S	10	0	0	X	X	X	X	X	X
61	Baginski, J	17	0	0	X	X	X	X
61	Handy, A	18	0	0	X	X	X	X	X	X
61	Cotter, M	39	0	50	0	X	0	X
61	Casey, S	50	0	0	X	X	X	X	X	X
61	O'Brien, W	54	0	0	X	X	X	X	X	X
61	Giraldo, J	56	0	0	X	X	X	X
61	Cruz, C	58	0	50	X	0
61	Alzate, K	60	0	0	X	X	X	X	X	X
61	Finkelman, A	74	0	0	X	X